Morning conference: Moody’s Asia Pacific credit outlook 2018. The Global Economy: Firing on (almost) all cylinders. Outlook key messages:
1. Stable growth in advance economies and broadening emerging market recovery underpin global growth through 2019
A. Durable economic momentum across G20 economies
B. Synchronised global recovery
C. Globally monetary policy remains accommodative, but the cycle is beginning to turn.
2. Global growth, trade and continued accommodative monetary policy underpin Asia-Pacific credit outlook
A. Robust growth across region
B. Trade remains a key pillar of growth for most Asian economies
C. Monetary policy is expected to be accommodative even as cycle turns.
D. Rising share of stable and positive outlooks across sectors in Asia Pacific
E. Steady growth in China provides support to global economy.
3. Downside risks to the 2018 Asia-Pacific credit outlook
A. Faster than expected monetary policy tightening remains a downside risk
B. Faster than expected tightening funding conditions can amplify risk
C. Trade Protectionism remains a downside risk for Asia in 2018
D. Downside risks from a conflict in the Korean Peninsula.